Friday, September 3, 2010

Tropics Update_Friday morning notes for Earl, Fiona, Remnants of Gaston and East Atlantic tropical wave

  • At 8am Friday, Hurricane Earl was located about 130 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, which is also 395 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. 
  • Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105mph, but Earl is still a strong Category 2 hurricane. Continued slow weakening is expected, but Earl will remain large and strong during the next 24-36 hours as it passes by the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines today and Saturday.
  • There is a chance that Earl will pass within 100 miles of Nantucket, Massachusetts, early Saturday morning.
  • Lingering ocean swells from Earl are currently impacting Florida beaches and will likely persist into the weekend, producing a moderate to high risk of rip currents through Labor Day.
  • At 8am Friday, Tropical Storm Fiona continued to have maximum winds near 50mph while located 285 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, or about 840 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.
  • Hurricane Hunter Aircraft currently in the storm is reporting signs that Fiona is weakening. Fiona is expected to gradually weaken over the next 3 days while moving north-northeast, passing over the island of Bermuda early Saturday morning.
  • The remnants of Gaston are producing more organized storm activity this morning. There is now a 40% chance that Gaston could re-organize into a tropical system within the next 2 days. Computer models still suggest that Gaston could regenerate into a tropical depression or storm next week as it moves west and nears the Leeward Islands.   
  • Until regeneration (if any) occurs, the National Hurricane Center has discontinued advisories on Gaston.
  • No part of Florida is currently in the error cone of impact for any current storm.
  • The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic just off the west coast of Africa still lacks in organization despite the large area of associated showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible over the next few days, but there is currently only a 20% chance of this wave becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.
  • Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov
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