Tropics Update: Friday morning notes on Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe

 

Summary:

·         As of 5am ET Friday, Hurricane Ophelia was located about 695 miles south southeast of Bermuda, which is also approximately 1,128 miles east of Miami, Florida.

·         Hurricane Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest at 9 mph. A gradual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed should begin later today with Ophelia passing to the east of Bermuda on Saturday.

·         Ophelia continues to strengthen as the environment around the storm has improved over the last 48 hours. The storm has maximum sustained winds at 100 mph making Ophelia a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

·         Conditions will remain favorable for strengthening over the next 24-36 hours before Ophelia encounters cooler water and high wind shear. Ophelia has a 23% chance of becoming a major hurricane by Saturday afternoon.

·         Computer models continue to be in good agreement on the track and intensity of Ophelia over the next few days as the storm is forecast to encounter a vigorous low pressure trough. This feature will cause the storm to accelerate to the north and eventually make a turn to the northeast by Monday. The National Hurricane Center forecast has Ophelia passing over the southeast corner Newfoundland early Monday and moving into the north Atlantic on Tuesday.

·         No direct impacts to the mainland U.S. are anticipated.

·         At 5am Friday, Tropical Storm Philippe and was located 1150 miles east northeast of the Leeward Islands, which is about 2,240 miles east of Miami, Florida.

·         This system is moving to the northwest at 13 mph and this general motion is anticipated through Friday as the storm is steered around southwestern side of a high pressure ridge. After that, the high pressure system is forecast to strengthen and move west, which will cause Philippe to turn toward the west northwest with some decrease in forward speed by Saturday.

·         Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph. Philippe is forecast to maintain its strength or slightly weaken due to the unfavorable environment around it.

·         Philippe has become increasingly disorganized over the last couple of days as wind shear has displaced most of the thunderstorm activity to the northeast of the center. However, there will be a small window of about 24 hours in which conditions will be conducive for some strengthening. After that, the wind shear around the storm will pick up causing weakening.

·         Computer models are in good agreement on the track of Philippe. After the storm moves northwest for the next 24 hours, it is expected to take a more westerly track. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast has Philippe north of the Leeward Islands by late Tuesday.

More information on Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Friday evening for Ophelia and Philippe.

Tropics Update(4)

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