· Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave, located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea about 300 miles south of Key West, have become better organized over the past 24 hours.
· As a result, the National Hurricane Center is now indicating a 30% chance that this disturbance, labeled as invest area 90L, will develop into a tropical system within the next 2 days.
· Regardless of development, tropical moisture on the northern side of 90L may help produce rainfall over portions of South Florida during the next day or so.
· A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission to investigate this area of low pressure is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. The system currently does not have a closed center of circulation.
· Computer models are in a fair amount of agreement in regards to the track of the system due to strong and persistent steering currents and high pressure building across the southern U.S. that should promote a movement toward the west-northwest at around 15mph through the next 5 days. This will push the system on a course toward the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tomorrow and then towards the Mexico/Texas border late this week.
· Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development at this time, but could become a little more favorable during the 24 to 48 hours as wind shear in the area decreases.
· If current trends continue, this system has the potential to develop and receive a name. The next name on the list is Don.
· Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Tropics Update 7-26-11
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