· Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave, located near the Yucatan Channel about 320 miles southwest of Key West, continue to become better organized and satellite and radar observations suggest that a center of circulation may be developing.
· As a result, the National Hurricane Center is now indicating an 80% chance that this disturbance, labeled as invest area 90L, will develop into a tropical system within the next 2 days.
· A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
· If current trends continue, this system has the potential to become Tropical Depression #4 or Tropical Storm Don today or tomorrow.
· Tropical moisture on the northern side of 90L will help produce rainfall over portions of South Florida during the next day or so.
· Computer models have shifted northward since Tuesday and are now in a fair amount of disagreement in regards to the track of the system.
· Some models predict a weakness in the high pressure system over the southern U.S. to allow 90L to move further northward, while others predict the weakness near Louisiana to dissipate and allow high pressure to rebuild over the area and push 90L more westward. This is resulting in a large range of possibilities, extending from northeast Texas to northern Mexico, moving inland in about 72 hours.
· Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
AM Tropics Update 7-27-11
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