Summary:
· At 5pm Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on the third named storm of the 2012 Hurricane season. As of 5am Wednesday, Tropical Storm Chris was located about 590 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland which is also approximately 704 miles northeast of Bermuda.
· Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and little change in strength is forecast over the next 48 hours. Chris is expected to move over cooler waters and into an area of increased wind shear over the next day or so. After that time, Tropical Storm Chris is expected to be absorbed by a front and transition into an extra-tropical storm.
· Chris is rapidly moving toward the east at 17 mph and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Chris over the open Atlantic. This storm is not a threat to any land areas.
· Elsewhere, an area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing widespread cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are somewhat conductive for development and the National Hurricane Center has given this system a low (20%) chance of developing by Friday morning.
· This disturbance is expected to push into the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and be located somewhere over the central or west-central Gulf of Mexico by Friday into Saturday. By that time, computer models are indicating that conditions could become more favorable for development.
· Models are coming into slightly better agreement and suggest that this system may approach the northern Gulf Coast and Florida later this weekend or early next week.
· Regardless of the development of this system, heavy rainfall will likely impact South Florida and the Florida Keys through the next couple of days. Rainfall amounts through Monday morning could reach as high as 4-10 inches for most areas south of Lake Okeechobee with the greatest chance for heavy rainfall over the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida. Rain chances will likely increase over most of the state late this week and through the weekend as abundant tropical moisture from this disturbance surges across the area.
· It is important to note that confidence in the forecast of this system is not that great and will likely increase in the upcoming days. This system should continue to be monitored. If this disturbance does develop, the next name on the 2012 hurricane name list is Debby.
More information on Tropical Storm Chris and the Caribbean disturbance can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Thursday morning.
http://www.oysterradio.com e-mail manager@oysterradio.com with comments
No comments:
Post a Comment