Summary:
· At 8am EDT Monday, Hurricane Gordon weakened to a tropical storm while moving east of the Azores Islands in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
· Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 70 mph. As Gordon moves through increasing wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures, the storm is expected to continue to weaken. Gordon is forecast to lose tropical characteristics today and completely dissipate in about 2 days.
· Further south, a tropical wave and associated area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, designated as 94L, is located about 1,100 miles east of the Leeward Islands, or approximately 2,600 miles from Miami, Florida.
· Although there is an apparent center of circulation, showers and thunderstorm activity is not sufficiently organized.
· However, environmental conditions are conductive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a high (80%) chance of 94L becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 20-25 mph. The next name on the 2012 storm list is Isaac.
· Computer model track guidance is in good agreement and takes 94L on a west to west-northwest track towards the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days as it is steered around the southern edge of a large high pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean.
· Beyond that time frame, the some models suggest that this system may curve toward the northwest, while others take the system more westward through the northern Caribbean Sea.
· Although it will have to battle some moderate wind shear and dry air, computer models are also in general agreement that this system will develop into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. In addition, some models show this system intensifying into a hurricane later this week.
· It is important to note that confidence in the forecast beyond 72 hours is low and that computer model guidance can be unreliable until a better defined system develops.
· NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to begin investigating this system Tuesday.
· Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure, designated as invest area 95L.
· Although this disturbance is located close to land, some gradual development of this system is possible as it moves little during the next day or so. The National Hurricane Center has given this system a medium (30%) chance of developing by Wednesday.
· NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
· A new tropical wave has emerged off west Africa and is located south of the Cape Verde Islands.
· Shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, but some slow and gradual development is possible through the next few days as it moves westward at 15-20mph.
· Designated as new invest area 96L, the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a low (20%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Florida outlook:
· There are no tropical watches or warnings in effect for the United States and no part of Florida is within any error cone or at risk for tropical storm force winds.
· Tropical Storm Gordon will have no impact to Florida and it is too early to tell if 94L will affect Florida. However, everyone should continue to monitor this system.
· An unsettled weather pattern will continue to produce above normal rain chances in North Florida for the next couple of days and near to slightly above normal chances for scattered storms over Central and South Florida.
· ¼-½” of rain may fall across many areas of Central and South Florida each day, with locally heavier amounts of 1-2” possible. North Florida may receive higher rain totals closer to 1-2 inches per day with locally higher amounts of 4-6” possible.
· A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend through Tuesday morning.
· Run-off from daily rainfall may continue to move into already swollen rivers and there is a chance that some Panhandle and West Central Florida rivers and creeks may rise into action or minor flood stage later this week.
More information on Tropical Storm Gordon, 94L, 95L, and 96L can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Tuesday morning or if 94L develops.
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