Thursday, October 25, 2012

Tropics Update: Wednesday Evening Notes on Hurricane Sandy and Tropical Storm Tony


Summary:
·         Tropical Storm Sandy strengthened into a hurricane late Wednesday morning and as of 5pm EDT Sandy was located 25 miles north-northeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or approximately 603 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
·         Sandy is currently moving toward the north at 14 mph and this general motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours before turning more northeast ahead of an approaching cold front on Friday.
·         The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Sandy passing over eastern Cuba tonight, near or over the central Bahamas tomorrow, and then near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.
·         Maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph, making Sandy a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Weakening is expected as Sandy moves over eastern Cuba with re-strengthening as the storm moves into the Bahamas. Sandy is then forecast to become post-tropical or a hybrid system by Monday.

·         As of 5pm EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Tony was located about 1,060 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands.
·         Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph and little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours and Tony is expected to lose tropical characteristics by tomorrow.

Florida outlook:
·         A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida east coast north of Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach, the Florida Upper Keys from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, and Florida Bay. No part of Florida is within the 5 day cone of error.
·         Areas of Central and South Florida have a 3-19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds within the next five days and West Palm Beach has a 3% chance of seeing 58 mph winds.
·         Regardless of the track, an expanding wind field could create windy conditions for portions of Florida. Sustained winds of 15-35mph may impact South Florida and the Florida East Coast with these conditions continuing through Saturday. These winds will likely peak on Friday where sustained winds could reach 25-35mph. During this time, wind gusts could reach as high as 50-60 mph, primarily at the immediate coast or just offshore.
·         Waves will be the primary threat resulting in beach erosion, coastal flooding and a high rip current risk lasting as long as the middle of next week. Breakers as high as 8-10 feet at the coast and 20 feet offshore are forecast. If the storm tracks closer to the Sunshine State, these effects could be greater. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most of the Florida coastal waters.
·         Tropical Storm Tony is not expected to have direct impacts on the Sunshine State.

More information on Hurricane Sandy and Tropical Storm Tony can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.


Tropics Update (7)

http://www.oysterradio.com e-mail manager@oysterradio.com with comments

No comments:

Post a Comment