Summary:
· At 8am Tropical Storm Arthur had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and was located about 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL and was moving toward the north at 6 mph.
· The strongest thunderstorms associated with Arthur remain to the southeast and east of the center as dry air impacts thunderstorm development on the western edge of the storm.
· Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as atmospheric conditions remain favorable for development and Arthur is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday.
· Tropical storm force winds extend up to 80 miles from the center, and are just off the east coast of Florida.
· Models remain in very good agreement, and Arthur is forecast to continue to track northward throughout the day before making a turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed out ahead of an upper level disturbance on Thursday.
· Hurricane hunter aircraft continues to monitor Tropical Storm Arthur and several flights are scheduled throughout the day to investigate the progress of this storm
· Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center has placed a 0% chance for development over the next 5 days across the Atlantic hurricane basin.
Florida Outlook:
· Florida remains outside the 5 day cone of error, however, impacts are still expected and Floridians should continue to monitor Arthur’s progress
· Tropical storm watches are in effect from just south of Flagler Beach (Volusia County) to Sebastian Inlet, FL (Brevard County).
· Currently impacts to Florida appear to be gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph as rain bands impact the eastern Peninsula throughout today and tonight.
· Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts will be possible in the stronger storms that move onshore in the feeder bands
· Heavy rainfall is also expected across the Florida Peninsula from late today through Thursday. Current forecasts place rainfall totals at 1 to 2 inches across the Eastern Peninsula with higher amounts up to 3 inches along the east central Florida coast.
· Isolated rainfall totals up to 4 inches are possible along coastal portion of east central Florida and minor flooding may result, especially in low lying or flood prone areas that see storms train over the same area for extended periods of time
· In addition, rough surf, swells, and rip current risks will remain elevated along the Atlantic coast and minor beach erosion is possible along the Atlantic coast beaches
Slides are attached, and another briefing packet will be sent out this afternoon. For more information please visit the National Hurricane Center Webpage atwww.nhc.noaa.gov
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