This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office or visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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Outlook:
92L:
- A large non-tropical low pressure system, designated as invest 92L, in the far eastern Atlantic ocean is producing strong winds of 45 mph.
- This system is now tracking over warmer waters and could gain tropical characteristics over the next day as the system moves slowly westward.
- On Thursday, increasing wind shear will begin to limit 92L chances for development.
- The NHC has placed this systems development chances at 10% in the next five days.
93L:
- An area of low pressure in the far southwestern Bay of Campeche has become better defined , however, showers and storms still remain disorganized due to increased wind shear.
- This system is forecast to remain over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche over the next 36 to 48 hours as the system moves slowly eastward toward the Western Yucatan Peninsula.
- Forecast models then take the system across the Yucatan later in the week before the system merges with a frontal boundary south of Cuba in the northwestern Caribbean sea on Friday or Saturday.
- The NHC has placed this systems development chances at 50% over the next 5 days.
- Intensity models remain in disagreement, which is common when forecasting weak systems, and the more reliable models are keeping the system below tropical storm strength due to increasing wind shear and possible land interaction with Mexico.
- A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft may investigate 93L this afternoon, if conditions warrant.
Florida Outlook:
- 92L is not forecast to impact Florida and will likely remain far out at sea.
- Regardless of the development or track of 93L, increased rainfall is forecast to fall across South Florida late this week as 93L will send tropical moisture northward into the southern Florida peninsula increasing rain chances (and the potential for isolated strong storms) late Tuesday throughSaturday with the heaviest rainfall forecast to occur on Thursday and Friday.
- Rainfall forecasts through Sunday are currently placing up to 4 inches of rain across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and up to 5 inches in the Florida Keys with isolated higher amounts possible. This could create flooding issues and flash flooding in urban areas may result late this week.
*Another briefing packet will be sent this afternoon. For more information please visit the National Hurricane Center Webpage at www. nhc.noaa.gov |
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