Even though hurricane season is still 3 months away, Accuweather says there are already “serious and growing concerns” about the impending season.
There are two key factors that have AccuWeather forecasters sounding the early warning of a potentially super-charged season: The return of La Niña and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean.
The current El Niño pattern that is in place is forecast to transition into a La Niña pattern during the second half of the hurricane season.
La Niña typically leads to more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic due to reduced wind shear, or disruptive winds high in the atmosphere.
The 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons are tied for the most active in recorded history with each season generating 31 tropical systems.
La Niña was building fast during the 2005 season, and was firmly established in the 2020 season.
It could be a back-loaded season in 2024, as La Niña might not officially develop until late summer or early autumn.
Still, residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard should remain vigilant, as there is a risk for a system to develop before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1.
There are also concerns about warm water in the Atlantic this year.
There are two key factors that have AccuWeather forecasters sounding the early warning of a potentially super-charged season: The return of La Niña and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean.
The current El Niño pattern that is in place is forecast to transition into a La Niña pattern during the second half of the hurricane season.
La Niña typically leads to more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic due to reduced wind shear, or disruptive winds high in the atmosphere.
The 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons are tied for the most active in recorded history with each season generating 31 tropical systems.
La Niña was building fast during the 2005 season, and was firmly established in the 2020 season.
It could be a back-loaded season in 2024, as La Niña might not officially develop until late summer or early autumn.
Still, residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard should remain vigilant, as there is a risk for a system to develop before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1.
There are also concerns about warm water in the Atlantic this year.
Warm water is the fuel for hurricanes, and all signs are pointing toward potentially record-shattering warmth across the Atlantic hurricane basin during the summer and fall.
As of mid-February, the water temperatures across the Atlantic were at the same level where they typically are in mid-July, and the temperatures may only rise as the days get longer and heat builds across the Northern Hemisphere heading into spring and summer.
The water temperatures in the Main Development Region at the end of January were already 65% higher than the next closest year, a clear indication of how unusually warm the water is in this critical area of the Atlantic Ocean.
AccuWeather will release its full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to business customers and the public in March.
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