Tropics Update, Tuesday Morning Notes for 96L

·         96L, the broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce strong thunderstorms and winds of near tropical storm force. There is an 80% chance of this system becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. If this system does develop, the next name on the list is Nicole.

·         Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon to determine if the center of circulation has become more contract and a tropical storm has formed.

·         96L is currently being steered around the strong Bermuda High pressure system over the Atlantic and the low pressure trough over the Ohio River Valley.

·         Computer models show 96L moving toward the northeast and reaching western Cuba overnight tonight and then moving through the Florida Straits and South Florida Wednesday.

·         Models are also suggesting that this system will remain at tropical storm strength as it moves across or near southern Florida.

·         Regardless of the development and final track of this system, 96L will bring heavy rains to South Florida over the next few days.

·         These heavy rains will likely begin to impact South Florida this afternoon and will persist through Wednesday. A flood watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Collier, and inland Monroe Counties from 4pm Tuesday through 2pm Wednesday. 3-5 inches of rain are expected to fall over coastal areas of Southeast Florida over the next two days with higher amounts up to 7 inches possible. Elsewhere, 2-4 inches are likely across inland South Florida.

·         Tropical storm force winds are also expected to begin to impact South Florida beginning late today and lasting through tomorrow.

·         There is also a small chance for some isolated tornadoes to develop or move onshore today and Wednesday.

·         Long range computer models are suggesting another area of low pressure will develop over the western Caribbean late this week.

·         Elsewhere in the tropics, the remnant of Julia is located about 150 miles south-southeast of Bermuda and has a 10% chance of developing as it moves in a northwestward direction.

·         Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

 Tropics Update 9-28-10

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