- The low pressure system in the Caribbean Sea organized overnight and became newly formed Tropical Depression #19 at 11pm on Wednesday.
- As of 5am EDT, T.D. #19 was still located in the western Caribbean about midway between Jamaica and the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This location is also 527 miles south of Key West, Florida.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 35mph, but favorable atmospheric conditions and the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea will likely allow the depression to strengthen. There is greater than an 80% chance that T.D. #19 will become Tropical Storm Richard within the next 12 hours and a 50% chance that it could become a hurricane within the next 48 hours.
- Steering currents in the Caribbean Sea are becoming stronger as high pressure in the southern Plains and western Gulf of Mexico builds eastward. This should promote a gradual west-northwest or northwest movement through the next few days.
- The long range forecast remains uncertain and computer models remain in disagreement in terms of the forecast track. Some models take the storm into the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico while others take the storm through the Yucatan Channel and possibly on a course towards Florida.
- At this time, the official forecast points T.D. #19 slowly westward through Saturday, then northwest towards and over the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and through early next week.
- It is too early to tell if this sytem will have any impact on Florida.
- Hurricane Hunter aircraft will continue to investigate the system this morning and this evening.
- Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov
http://www.oysterradio.com e-mail manager@oysterradio.com with comments
No comments:
Post a Comment