Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Tropics Update_Tuesday morning notes on Tropical Storm Tomas

  • Tropical Storm Tomas is beginning to show signs of strengthening in the central Caribbean Sea.
  • Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50mph, and as of 5am EDT Tuesday, Tomas was located 135 miles northwest of Aruba, which is also about 355 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 1,000 miles from Miami, Florida.
  • Though gradual strengthening is forecast, Tomas will likely remain at tropical storm strength through today. However, wind shear is expected to decrease on Wednesday, which should allow Tomas to regain some strength and there is a possibility that Tomas could become a hurricane again by Thursday. 
  • Tomas is moving to the west at 12 mph, but a turn to the west-northwest should occur later today, followed by a turn to the northwest on Thursday as the flow ahead of a strong cold front moving through the Southeastern U.S. should steer Tomas northward and then eventually northeast.
  • On the forecast track, Tomas is forecast to cross Haiti Friday night, but the exact timing and forecast strength of Tomas is still somewhat uncertain.
  • At this time, rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches is forecast for the country of Haiti, with isolated amounts up to 8-10 inches possible along the southern coast. 

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