Executive Summary:
· The low pressure disturbance in the southwest Atlantic is now moving onto the Florida coast with scattered showers and thunderstorms. · Due to interaction with land and only marginally favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a 20% chance for tropical development within the next two days.
· The disturbance is moving rapidly west-southwest around 20 mph and should emerge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
· Steering currents around high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S. should move the disturbance over northern Central Florida today and then westward into the Gulf of Mexico this evening.
· Computer models project this system to move on a generally westward path towards the Texas coast through Friday.
· Some intensity models indicate the possibility of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm. The first name on the 2011 storm name list is Arlene.
· The main impacts to Florida with this disturbance will be some much needed rain for northern and central Florida, with a 30%-50% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms from Lake Okeechobee northward. Thunderstorms may include gusty winds, lightning and hail, but no significant severe weather is expected.
· Elsewhere, a large area of showers and thunderstorms in the central Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica, has been given a 10% chance for development within the next 2 days.
· However, the probability of formation may increase by Friday as 30-40 knots of wind shear in the area is forecast to decrease through the end of the week.
· Computer model runs for this disturbance will become available once the probability of formation is increased to 20%. Global models and steering currents suggest a slow northward movement through the next 2-3 days.
Tropics Update 6-1-11pm
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