Executive Summary:
· Shower and thunderstorm activity with a low pressure disturbance in the central Caribbean 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, or about 605 miles south of Miami, Florida, remains disorganized. · However, marginally favorable environmental conditions in the Caribbean could promote further development and the National Hurricane Center is indicating a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
· The Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission for this afternoon has been cancelled, but a flight is scheduled to investigate the system on Tuesday if the low shows signs of organization.
· Computer models remain in large disagreement over the track and intensity of the system. This is common for disturbances that are disorganized.
· The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that the low will remain nearly stationary in the western Caribbean through Wednesday.
· Later this week, high pressure over the Southeastern U.S. is forecast slide east into the western Atlantic, which may allow the system to drift further northwest or north, possibly into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
· However, dry air in this area along with increasing wind shear over the Straits of Florida may inhibit significant development, and most computer models keep the system weak.
· It is too early to tell if this system will impact the State of Florida, but moisture from the system will spread north and may bring some much needed rainfall to the state late this week and this weekend.
· Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov
Tropics Update 6-6-11
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