Tropics Update: SW Gulf (30%) Monday afternoon summary

Summary:

·      Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure disturbance over the western Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.

·      As a result, the National Hurricane Center is indicating a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

·      A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission to investigate the system has been tentatively scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.

·      Global computer models are forecasting that the low will move slowly west-northwest in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days before moving inland over northern Mexico later this week.

·      A full suite of computer models on the system will be run this evening.

·      Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development and this disturbance has the potential to become the first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. If this happens, it would be named Tropical Depression #1 or Tropical Storm Arlene.

·      Although the system is forecast to move away from Florida, tropical moisture from the system will be carried northeast and may help generate some much needed rainfall across the state today and tomorrow.

·      Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.   

Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Tuesday morning.

Tropics Update 6-27-11




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