Summary:
· The first named tropical system of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season developed at 8pm on Tuesday as showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico became organized.
· As of 8am EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arlene was located about 175 miles east of Tampico, Mexico, or about 775 miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
· Arlene is currently moving toward the west-northwest at 8 mph and maximum sustained winds remain around 40 mph.
· Environmental conditions are favorable for some gradual strengthening over the next 24 hours as wind shear over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico decreases, and computer models and the official forecast keep Arlene within tropical storm intensity (sustained winds of 39-73 mph) until landfall. There is a 10% chance of Arlene becoming a hurricane.
· The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Arlene to turn toward the west today as it is steered around a strong ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains, and make landfall in less than 24 hours along the northeastern coast of Mexico Thursday morning.
· Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft will continue investigating Tropical Storm Arlene today to provide updates on the structure and intensity of the storm.
· Although the system is forecast to move away from Florida, tropical moisture from the area will be carried northeast and may help generate some much needed rainfall across the state.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Wednesday evening.
Amy Godsey
State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management
www.KidsGetAPlan.comAM Tropics Update 6-29-11
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