Summary:
· The eighth tropical depression of the 2011 season formed in the Western Caribbean Sea last night. As of 8am Friday, T.D. #8 was located about 55 miles northwest of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border and around 634 miles south-southeast of Key West, Florida.
· The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph and the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center shows this general motion continuing through Sunday. On this track, the storm will pass near or over the northern coast of Honduras today and tomorrow and will then move inland over Belize and Guatemala by Saturday night. The storm will then gradually weaken and will likely dissipate by early next week.
· Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph and no significant change in intensity is forecast for TD 8 over the next day or two since it is forecast to move along or just near the coast of Honduras. The strength of the storm over the next couple of days will depend on its track. If it stays more over land, it may not intensify at all. If it moves over more water, then it may reach tropical storm strength. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has this storm briefly reaching tropical storm intensity tomorrow.
· Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft are scheduled to fly into the system this system today.
· Tropical Depression Eight is not a threat to Florida.
· Elsewhere, a tropical wave, designated as 97L, in the Central Atlantic Ocean, located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, which is also around 2,365 miles southeast of Miami, Florida is showing signs of organization.
· No significant development of this wave is expected today, but environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for development over the next several days as the system moves westward near 20 mph and over warmer waters.
· This tropical wave has a 40% chance of developing within the next 48 hours, but this percentage will likely increase after that time.
· Computer models are in agreement and are showing the system moving toward the west or northwest over the next five days. On this track, the wave will pass over the Leeward Islands tomorrow and will likely approach Puerto Rico and Hispaniola the first few days of next week. After that time, steering currents will play a large role in the track of 97L.
· It is too early to tell if this system will threaten Florida, but it should be monitored over the next several days.
· Elsewhere, a vigorous tropical wave, designated as 98L, emerged off the West Coast of Africa yesterday. This wave is becoming better defined and environmental conditions are favorable for development over the next couple of days.
· The National Hurricane Center has given this system a 50% chance of developing within the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward near 10-15 mph.
· Computer models are in decent agreement and are forecasting this system to continue moving toward the west-northwest or northwest over the next few days. Models also suggest that this system may reach tropical depression or tropical storm intensity within the next day or two.
· The next three names on the 2011 hurricane name list are Harvey, Irene and Jose.
Tropics Update(1)
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