Summary:
· A tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea about 200 miles south-southwest of Jamaica and near 726 miles south-southeast of Miami, Florida, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to become better organized.
· Environmental conditions are conductive for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm may form later today or tonight. If the system receives a name, the next name on the 2011 list is Harvey.
· The National Hurricane Center is forecasting an 80% chance that this wave will develop within the next 2 days.
· Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft are scheduled to fly into the system this afternoon.
· The wave is currently moving west around 15 mph and computer models are predicting a continued west or west-northwest movement as it is steered on the southern side of high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Computer models are split and some take this system westward and near the Honduras/Nicaragua border while others take it more towards the west-northwest into Belize or Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula late this week.
· Computer models remain in large disagreement on the intensity of the storm, which is common in undeveloped systems.
· Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic Ocean is producing limited shower activity. Significant development is not likely over the next couple of days, but environmental conditions will become more favorable after that time as this system moves toward the west near 15-20 mph. This tropical wave has a 10% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.
· More information on 93L and the Atlantic tropical wave can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Tropics Update
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