Summary:
· At 5am Wednesday, Hurricane Katia weakened to a Category 1 hurricane and maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph.
· A slow weakening trend is forecast to continue as Katia encounters increasing wind shear and cooler ocean waters.
· As of 8am ET Wednesday, Katia is located about 310 miles southwest of Bermuda, or 760 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida.
· Hurricane
Katia is moving northwest at 10 mph, but Katia is expected to turn more
toward the north-northwest today, north on Thursday and
north-northeast on Friday as it gets picked up by a frontal system
currently along the U.S. East Coast.
· All
computer models and the official 5 day forecast track from the National
Hurricane Center keeps the system over the open western Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast through the next 3 days before
moving rapidly into the northern Atlantic as a remnant system.
· Even
though the storm is expected to stay away from Florida and the U.S.,
ocean swells and very dangerous rip currents from the storm will affect
the Florida East Coast this week. A high risk of rip currents is
forecast for the Florida Atlantic Coast mainly north of Jupiter Inlet.
· At
5am ET Wednesday, newly formed Tropical Depression #14 was located
approximately halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Leeward
Islands, which is also 2,790 miles from Miami, Florida, with maximum
sustained winds near 35mph.
· Though
T.D. #14 is encountering some wind shear to its north, environmental
conditions are largely favorable for gradual development and it could
become Tropical Storm Maria today and potentially a hurricane later this
weekend.
· T.D.
#14 is currently moving toward the west around 20 mph, but a turn back
to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected through the next 2-3 days as it is steered around the southern
edge of high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean.
· Computer
models are in decent agreement and most show this system moving
west-northwest and approaching the northern Leeward Islands before
turning more towards the northwest in about 4-5 days as high pressure in
the western Atlantic weakens. Long range models then predict a
northward turn in 6-7 days.
· The
long range forecast is somewhat uncertain, which is common with weaker
systems and it is still too early to tell if it will have any impact on
Florida or the U.S.
· Elsewhere,
a nearly stationary area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the
southwest Gulf of Mexico is producing a cluster of shower and
thunderstorm activity.
· The
low is showing signs of organization and environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development by Thursday. As a result, the
National Hurricane Center is now indicating a 60% chance of that this system could become a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.
· Computer
models remain in large disagreement, which is common for weak and
undeveloped systems. All models keep the low nearly stationary through
the next 72 hours. After that time, a few models take 96L northward
towards the U.S. Gulf Coast as it is picked up by a frontal system
while other models steer 96L west or southwest as high pressure over
Texas moves east and sends 96L westward into Mexico.
· Intensity
models are also split, with some keeping the system weak as a low or
tropical depression while others intensify the storm into a tropical
storm. Two models are indicating that it could become a hurricane, but
those models are predict a westward track.
· The
next name on the storm list, after Maria, is Nate. With large
uncertainties in the forecast, this system should be monitored this
week.
More information on Hurricane Katia, Tropical Depression #14 and 96L can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Wednesday evening. AM Tropics Update 9-7-11
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