Thursday, September 22, 2011

Tropics Update, Thursday Morning Notes on Tropical Storm Ophelia

Summary:
·         As of 5am ET Thursday, Ophelia was located about 1,020 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, which is also approximately 2,353 miles from Miami, Florida.
·         Tropical Storm Ophelia is moving toward the west at 14 mph and this general motion is forecast through today as it is steered around the southern edge of a large high pressure ridge in the Central Atlantic Ocean. After that time, the ridge is expected to slightly weaken, and this will cause Ophelia to turn toward the west-northwest tomorrow morning. Ophelia is then expected to turn toward the northwest this weekend.
·         Computer models and the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center show Ophelia moving near or north of the Leeward Islands this weekend before curving more toward the northwest.
·         Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph and slow weakening is forecast over the next two days due to increasing wind shear in Ophelia’s path. After that time, some models show slight strengthening as Ophelia moves into a more conductive environment.
·         Most computer models and the official forecast keep Ophelia at tropical storm strength throughout the next five days. After that time, Ophelia may strengthen and there is a 19% chance of Ophelia reaching hurricane strength by next Tuesday.
·         It is too early to tell if this system will threaten Florida, but it should be monitored over the next several days.

More information on Tropical Storm Ophelia can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropics Update


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