Summary:
·
At 11pm
ET Tuesday Tropical Storm
Ophelia, the sixteenth named storm of the 2011 season, formed in the Central
Atlantic Ocean.
·
As of
5am ET Wednesday, Ophelia was
located about 1,370 miles east of the Leeward Islands, which is also
approximately 2,695 miles from Miami,
Florida.
·
Tropical
Storm Ophelia is moving toward
the west at 13 mph and this general motion with an increase in forward
speed is
forecast for the next 48 hours as it is steered around the southern edge
of a
large high pressure ridge in the Central Atlantic Ocean.
After that time, the ridge is expected to slightly weaken, and this will
cause
Ophelia to turn toward the west-northwest.
·
Computer
models and the official
forecast track from the National Hurricane Center
show Ophelia approaching the Leeward Islands this weekend and passing
near Puerto Rico by early Monday.
·
Maximum
sustained winds are near 45 mph
and only slight strengthening is forecast over the next five days due to
increasing wind shear in Ophelia’s path.
·
Most
computer models and the official
forecast keep Ophelia at tropical storm strength throughout the next
five days
with only a 15% chance of Ophelia reaching hurricane strength within
that time.
·
It is
too early to tell if this system
will threaten Florida,
but it should be monitored over the next several days.
Tropics Update
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