Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Tropics Update, Wednesday Morning Notes on Tropical Storm Ophelia

Summary:
·         At 11pm ET Tuesday Tropical Storm Ophelia, the sixteenth named storm of the 2011 season, formed in the Central Atlantic Ocean.
·         As of 5am ET Wednesday, Ophelia was located about 1,370 miles east of the Leeward Islands, which is also approximately 2,695 miles from Miami, Florida.
·         Tropical Storm Ophelia is moving toward the west at 13 mph and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast for the next 48 hours as it is steered around the southern edge of a large high pressure ridge in the Central Atlantic Ocean. After that time, the ridge is expected to slightly weaken, and this will cause Ophelia to turn toward the west-northwest.
·         Computer models and the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center show Ophelia approaching the Leeward Islands this weekend and passing near Puerto Rico by early Monday.
·         Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and only slight strengthening is forecast over the next five days due to increasing wind shear in Ophelia’s path.
·         Most computer models and the official forecast keep Ophelia at tropical storm strength throughout the next five days with only a 15% chance of Ophelia reaching hurricane strength within that time.
·         It is too early to tell if this system will threaten Florida, but it should be monitored over the next several days.

More information on Tropical Storm Ophelia can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Wednesday evening.

Tropics Update


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