Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Tropics Update, Wednesday Morning Notes on Ophelia and Philippe

Summary:

  • As of 5am ET Wednesday, Tropical Depression Ophelia was located 205 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, which is also around 1,384 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida.
  • Ophelia is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours as it is steered around the southern edge of a high pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean. After that time, Ophelia is expected to get picked up by a front moving off the Eastern Seaboard and move northward and then northeastward while curving out into the open Atlantic.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph and strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Ophelia may regain tropical storm strength today. After that time somewhat favorable environmental conditions may allow Ophelia to reach hurricane strength. There is a 61% chance that Ophelia may become a hurricane by Sunday.
  • Computer models and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center both keep Ophelia well to our east and it is not expected to be a U.S. threat.

  • As of 5am ET Wednesday, Tropical Storm Philippe was located 930 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, which is around 2,785 miles from Miami, Florida.
  • This storm is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph and a turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and slight weakening is forecast in the next day or two and Philippe may become a tropical depression by tonight or tomorrow.
  • The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Tropical Storm Philippe away from land masses in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.


More information on Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Wednesday evening.

Tropics Update(3)


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