· An area of low pressure, now currently located just north of the northern Bahamas, is slowly becoming better organized.
· Although the system is currently experiencing high amounts of wind shear that is pushing the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east of the storm center, ocean and atmospheric conditions are forecast become more favorable for tropical development this weekend.
· As a result, the National Hurricane Center is now indicating a 70% chance that this system could become a tropical or sub-tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
· The forecast for this system, and potential impacts to Florida, has not changed much since Thursday afternoon.
· The low is expected to continue moving northeast over the next 24-36 hours, but computer model guidance is in good agreement that a high pressure system developing over the Mid-Atlantic States this weekend will block its forward progress and will turn the low back toward the west, toward the Southeast U.S. coast (between North Florida and South Carolina).
· As this occurs, there is a chance that the low may begin to acquire tropical characteristics.
· The system is then forecast to drift further west into the early part of next week before being pushed back to the northeast on Tuesday or Wednesday by an approaching cold front.
· Wind impacts from this potential system would likely be minimal, other than to produce hazardous marine and beach conditions (high risk of rip currents) near Northeast and East Central Florida beginning Saturday or Sunday.
· The more likely impact appears to be possible heavy rainfall across North Florida beginning Sunday and lingering into the early part of the week if this slow moving system materializes and moves as currently forecast by the models.
· Additional information on this low pressure system and potential impacts can be found at www.nhc.noaa.govand your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
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