Monday, July 23, 2012

Weekly Tropical Forecast - Atlantic


Chance of tropical development is low over the next 5-10 days, but a trough of low pressure moving across our service territory could bring severe storms with 40-45 mph winds, heavy rains, and frequent lightning.  

All storm organizations are asked to monitor the weather and be prepared to respond to any mid-level escalation notifications if needed.

Moisture levels will fall across the Peninsula tomorrow and Wednesday, but deep moisture and good storms chances will continue over the North Coastal and North Central regions.  Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, thanks to stronger afternoon heating and more established sea breeze boundaries. 

The DSSC will monitor the Tropics and provide the necessary updates
  


Active Storms
None

Significant Disturbances
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 25, extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the southwest Gulf of Mexico, has not become any better organized during the past 24 hours. Showers and storms dissipated overnight. Therefore, the chance of any tropical development is very slight. The southern part of the disturbance is likely to move to the west, toward Mexico, while the northern part may separate and move toward northern Florida, where it may bring increased showers and storms today and tomorrow.

Disturbance 26 has redeveloped along 61.5W and is bringing heavy squalls to the southern Windward Islands. There are no signs of organization and no development is expected.

Disturbance 28 is located along 32W and is moving to the west at 10 to 15 mph.

Long-Range Discussion
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the 5-10 days. However, environmental conditions may become a bit more favorable for development in August.


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