Summary:
· At 5am EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Gordon was located about 1,195 miles west of the Azores Islands, or approximately 1,970 miles northeast of Jacksonville, Florida.
· Gordon is now moving toward the east at 18 mph and this motion should continue for the next few days.
· Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly since late last night and are now near 65 mph. There is still nearly a 50% chance that Gordon could briefly become a hurricane by Saturday, but after that time, conditions will become increasingly hostile and Gordon should begin to lose tropical characteristics by next week.
· Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Depression 7 located over the Bay of Campeche, or about 700 miles southwest of Pensacola, is becoming much better organized.
· Although this system should reach land within the next 2 days, conditions are favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a high (70%) chance of this system becoming a depression again within the next 48 hours.
· Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
· Although a few computer models show more of a northward movement, skirting along the coast and then moving inland over southern Texas or perhaps as far east as Louisiana, many of the more reliable computer models and the official forecast track bring the storm inland over eastern Mexico in 24-48 hours.
· A new tropical wave, designated as invest area 94L, has emerged off the west coast of Africa and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.
· Due to the presence of cooler ocean temperatures, only slow and gradual development is expected during the next few days.
· The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
· However, computer models suggest that once this system moves closer to the central Atlantic, it will intensify and could become a tropical storm. The next name on the 2012 storm list is Helene.
· Computer model track guidance is in good agreement and takes 94L west-northwest into the central Atlantic early next week and then curving northward near or east of Bermuda next weekend.
Florida outlook:
· There are no watches or warnings in effect for the United States and no part of Florida is within any error cone or at risk for tropical storm force winds.
· TS Gordon will have no impact to Florida.
· Even if the remnants of T.D. 7 and what becomes of 94L does not directly affect Florida, ocean swells from a system in the Gulf may affect some Florida Panhandle beaches late this weekend and early next week. Also, a strong storm in the central Atlantic may also push ocean swells towards the East Coast of Florida.
· An unsettled weather pattern will continue to produce above normal rain chances in North Florida for the next several days, and near to slightly above normal chances for scattered storms over Central and South Florida.
· ¼-½” of rain may fall across many areas of Central and South Florida each day, with locally heavier amounts of 1-2” possible, but North Florida areas may receive higher rain totals closer to ¾ - 1 inch per day with locally higher amounts of 2-3” possible.
· Many of the rivers and creeks are receding. A Flood Warning remains in effect only for the St. Marks River. However, run-off from daily rainfall may continue to move into already swollen rivers and there is around a 30% chance that some Panhandle and West Central Florida rivers and creeks may rise into action or minor flood stage this weekend or early next week.
More information on Tropical Storm Gordon, 94L and the remnant low of T.D. 7 can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Friday evening.
http://www.oysterradio.com e-mail manager@oysterradio.com with comments
No comments:
Post a Comment