Summary:
· At 5pm EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Isaac was located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico about 320 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama.
· Isaac is moving northwest around 12 mph. This general motion, with a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected today, followed by a turn to the northwest on Tuesday.
· Computer models are coming into better agreement and now many show a potential landfall along the northern Gulf Coast between Mississippi and the Texas/Louisiana border as the storm is steered by high pressure westward.
· The official NHC forecast now takes Tropical Storm Isaac south of the Florida Panhandle tonight, then making landfall in southeastern Louisiana tomorrow evening.
· Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph and Isaac is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight or early Tuesday and gradually strengthen until landfall on Tuesday night.
· Isaac remains a large storm, and tropical storm force winds extend as far as 205 miles from the center. Due to the large wind field associated with Isaac, effects will continue to be felt far away from the center.
· A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic, designated as invest area 97L, is slowly trying to organize. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly hostile for development as it moves west-northwest to northwest at 10-15mph.
· The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a medium (30%) chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 2 days.
· A new tropical wave emerging from western Africa may begin to organize over the next several days. There is currently only a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, but chances may increase in a few days as it moves west around 10-15mph.
Florida outlook:
· Watches and Warnings Issued for Florida:
o Tropical Storm Warning – From the Florida/Alabama border to the Aucilla River in the Florida Panhandle. This includes the counties of: Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Gulf, Bay, Walton, coastal Franklin, coastal Wakulla, and coastal Jefferson.
· Although wind probabilities are decreasing, the large nature of Isaac could still produce a 10% or less chance of receiving tropical storm force winds along coastal Southwest Florida, and near 40% or less over the Florida Panhandle. Tampa currently has a 6% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds and Tallahassee has a 16% chance.
· Tropical storm force winds could reach coastal areas of the Panhandle tonight through the overnight hours into Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could linger over the western Panhandle for several hours, from Monday night through Wednesday morning.
· Although sustained tropical storm force winds for any significant length of time is low in the Florida Big Bend, gusts to tropical storm force are possible. However, large storm tide heights are still expected in Apalachee Bay and a Tropical Storm Warning includes the hazard for wind and surge.
· Flooding concerns were elevated this afternoon as heavy rainfall of up to 8 inches fell over Southeast and Central Florida as the outer bands of Isaac rotated through the area. Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches have fallen over some areas of Southeast Florida and the Treasure Coast, with as much as 14-16 inches in parts of Palm Beach County within the past 36-48 hours. While the threat for heavy rainfall has diminished, a Flood Watch remains in effect for South Florida until 8pm. Due to the slow receding of flood waters, a Flood Warning is in place for eastern Broward and Palm Beach Counties through 10:30PM tonight and through 6PM for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie Counties.
· Over the next 12 hours, areas of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle may receive up to 1-3 inches of rain with localized amounts of 6 inches possible. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend through Tuesday morning. Additionally, some Western Panhandle areas may receive between 3 and 9 inches and locally higher amounts to 15 inches within the next few days.
· Storm tide (surge + tide) heights may reach 3-6 feet along the Florida Panhandle and near 1-3 feet along the coast of Southwest Florida and Apalachee Bay and these will likely occur during times of high tide tonight and tomorrow.
· Large waves statewide will result in a high risk of rip currents. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from Nassau County to Martin County and also along the Gulf Coast from Pinellas County through Lee County.
· The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the state in a slight risk for severe weather for the rest of today, and for Northwest Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Tuesday morning.
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