· At 8am EDT Thursday, Tropical Depression #5 was located about 505 miles east of the Windward Islands, or about 1,950 miles southeast of Miami, Florida, and moving west at 21mph.
· The system lost some organization overnight, but maximum sustained winds remain near 35mph.
· There are no watches or warnings in effect for any U.S. landmass and no part of Florida is currently within the 5 day error cone.
· An area of moderately strong wind shear located north of T.D. 5 and some drier air on the west side of the storm will limit the rate of strengthening over the next 24-48 hours, or could possibly degenerate the depression into a tropical wave. However, if it survives, conditions in the Caribbean Sea are favorable enough for it to become Tropical Storm Ernesto.
· Most of the computer models guidance has T.D. 5 strengthening into a tropical storm within the next 72 hours. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the depression becoming a tropical storm late tomorrow. About a third of the models, however, keep it weaker below tropical storm strength.
· A quick west to west-northwest track is expected to occur through the next 3-4 days, and the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, along with an overwhelming majority of the available computer models, take T.D. 5 into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Saturday.
· However, beyond this point, the models begin to spread out, with a range of possibilities between the Bahamas and Central America.
· The official forecast has shifted slightly south, but still takes T.D. 5 into the central Caribbean this weekend and passing just south of Jamaica early next week.
· It is important to note that confidence in the forecast of this system is low and that computer model guidance (especially intensity forecasts) can be unreliable until a better organized system develops.
· Meanwhile, a tropical wave approaching Cuba will keep rain chances elevated for southern Florida through this weekend while a disturbance brings above normal rain chances across North Florida for the next few days.
· Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate T.D. #5 this afternoon.
More information on the Tropical Depression Five can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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