Summary:
· A tropical wave and associated low pressure area in the central Atlantic Ocean, designated as 93L, is located about 715 miles southeast of Bermuda, or approximately 1680 miles east of Florida.
· The circulation is becoming better defined and although dry air will be near the system for the next day or so, atmospheric and oceanic conditions (light wind shear and warm water temperatures) appear favorable for additional development.
· The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a high (80%) chance of becoming a tropical depression later today or tomorrow as it moves north-northwest at 15 mph. The next name on the 2012 storm name list is Gordon.
· Computer models are in good agreement and strengthens the system into a tropical storm within the next 36 hours. Most models even strengthen it into a hurricane this weekend.
· At the same time, a northeastward turn is expected to occur by Thursday or Friday, followed by an eastward movement through the weekend.
· Elsewhere, a tropical wave (the remnants of T.D. 7) in the western Caribbean Sea remains unorganized.
· Environmental conditions are not conductive for re-development and the National Hurricane Center has given this system a low (0%) chance of becoming a cyclone again within the next 48 hours as it moves west at 15-20 mph and into Central America.
Florida outlook:
· There are no watches or warnings in effect for the United States and no part of Florida is within any error cone or at risk for tropical storm force winds.
· 93L will have no impact to Florida.
· An upper level disturbance and approaching frontal system will continue to produce several periods of heavy showers and storms across much of Northwest Florida for the next several days while sea breeze activity produces scattered storms over Central and South Florida.
· Up to 5 inches of rain has fallen within the past 3 days. An additional ¼-½” may fall across North Florida each day, with locally heavier amounts of 1-2” possible.
· Run-off from daily rainfall is moving into already swollen rivers. A Flood Warning is in effect for the St. Marks and Manatee Rivers, as well as Cypress Creek. Frequent and dangerous lightning is also a high threat.
http://www.oysterradio.com e-mail manager@oysterradio.com with comments
No comments:
Post a Comment