Summary:
· As of 8am EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Ernesto was located 90 miles south-southeast of Campeche, Mexico.
· Ernesto is moving towards the west at 15 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through the next day or so.
· The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Ernesto through the southern Yucatan Peninsula this morning and shows it emerging into the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Ernesto is then expected to move across the Bay of Campeche and approach the eastern coast of Mexico near Veracruz on Thursday.
· Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 60 mph and additional weakening is expected as Ernesto moves over land this morning. Ernesto may then gain some strength in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and could become a hurricane again before making its final landfall in Mexico.
· There are no watches or warnings in effect for the United States and no part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone. However, increasing ocean swells from distance Tropical Storm Ernesto will affect the northern Gulf Coast through the rest of the week. These will likely cause rough surf with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet and will lead to a high rip current risk along the Emerald Coast, from Escambia County through Gulf County, today and a moderate risk on Thursday. A Rip Current Statement has been issued.
· Further east, shower activity in association with the post-tropical remnant low of Florence, about 450 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, remains unorganized. Environmental conditions are not conductive for development and the National Hurricane Center has given this system a low (near 0%) chance of redeveloping within the next 48 hours as it move west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
· Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, designated as 92L, is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has become slightly better organized over the past few hours but conditions are only marginally favorable for development. The National Hurricane Center has given this wave a medium (30%) chance of developing by Friday morning as it moves toward the west at 10 to 15 mph.
· Closer to home, a weak area of low pressure over the Florida Panhandle will continue to produce several periods of heavy showers across much of the area today. An additional 1 to 2 inches may fall across North Florida with localized areas receiving upwards of 2 to 4 inches. Lightning is also a concern.
More information on Tropical Storm Ernesto can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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