Executive Summary:
· A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, designated as invest area 99L, has been showing signs of organization over the past few days.
· Atmospheric and oceanic conditions (light to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures) are favorable for additional development and the National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a high (60%) chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
· Computer models remain in disagreement in all aspects of the forecast, especially in regards to track and intensity.
· While all of the available models track the system into the eastern Caribbean Sea in the 3-4 day timeframe, some models take 99L more northwest across towards Puerto Rico, Hispaniola or Cuba before possibly moving towards the Bahamas or southern Florida (~7-10 days from now).
· A larger grouping of equally reliable computer models keeps the system further south, moving westward through the Caribbean next week. However, some of these models completely dissipate the disturbance while over the Caribbean.
· It is important to note that confidence in the forecast of this system is low and that computer model guidance can be unreliable until a better organized system develops.
· Meanwhile, a tropical wave approaching Cuba may keep rain chances elevated for southern Florida this weekend while a frontal boundary elevates rain chances across North Florida for the next few days.
· Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is tentatively scheduled to investigate the system Friday afternoon.
· If this disturbance develops, the next name on the 2012 storm name list is Ernesto.
More information on the Atlantic disturbance can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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