Thursday, September 13, 2012

FYI-Tropics Update: Thursday summary on TS Nadine


Summary:

  • At 11am EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Nadine was located in the central Atlantic Ocean about 770 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, which is approximately 1,777 miles from Miami, Florida.
  • Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, and some additional strengthening is expected during the 24-36 hours before encountering higher wind shear values and cooler ocean temperatures. There is currently a 50% chance of reaching hurricane strength within the next five days and Nadine may become a hurricane as early as this evening.
  • However, gradual weakening of Nadine should begin to occur on Saturday or Sunday.
  • Tropical Storm Nadine is moving toward the northwest at 16 mph. Computer models and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center are in agreement through the next few days and show Nadine moving northward in the central Atlantic through Friday and then northeast this weekend through next week.

Florida outlook:
  • No part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone for Tropical Storm Nadine and this storm is not expected to have direct impacts on the Sunshine State.
  • However, ocean swells originating from this storm may reach the Atlantic Coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. These swells, lingering ocean swells from past systems and persistent east onshore winds will create a moderate to high rip current risk along the entire Atlantic Coast beaches today through Sunday or Monday, as well as a moderate chop on coastal waters and inlets. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is also forecast for Florida Panhandle beaches from Franklin County westward.


More information on Tropical Storm Nadine can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Friday morning.




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