We will be closely monitoring the area of thunderstorms now pushing off the central Gulf coast for possible development over the next few days. There is a weak surface low associated with this energy (which is partially from the remnants of Isaac) which will move over the water later today. Some of the models continue to develop this low, and the National Hurricane Center now has a 20% forecast of this becoming a tropical cyclone/TD in the next 48hrs:
'A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. '
I have attached the latest Invest-run to show where the models want to take this system later this week and into the weekend, as this area of energy gets picked up a a cold front moving across the region Saturday and Sunday.
It appears the FL coastal and Big Bend counties, along with parts of south GA, would be the most likely areas affected should something materialize. You will want to keep tabs on the latest forecast and thinking out of NHC over the next few days to see how this evolves. (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Hopefully it will be a non-factor, however I want to make sure ya'll are aware that something could develop just off our coast. At this point, this is just something to monitor.
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