Summary:
- Nadine weakened to a tropical storm late Sunday night and as of 11am EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Nadine was located 585 miles southwest of the Azores Islands.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph and slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days.
- Tropical Storm Nadine is moving toward the northeast at 15 mph. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Nadine moving in a general northeast and then north-northeast direction through the next few days as it stays in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean and far away from the United States.
· Elsewhere, an area of low pressure designated at 92L is in the central Atlantic Ocean about 150 miles east of the northern Windward Islands, which is also approximately 1,586 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
· Shower activity surrounding 92L is minimal and environmental conditions are not conductive for development. The National Hurricane Center is indicating a 0% chance that this system could develop within the next 48 hours as it moves westward at around 15 mph.
· Closer to home, a non-tropical low pressure system in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf Coast. This system has been designated as 93L and is located about 400 miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
· This disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front later today before it reaches the coast of Louisiana by tomorrow morning. The National Hurricane Center is indicating a 0% chance that this system will develop into a subtropical cyclone as it moves northeast at 15 to 20 mph.
Florida outlook:
- No part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone of Tropical Storm Nadine and this storm is not expected to have direct impacts on the Sunshine State.
- Although no direct impacts from Nadine are expected in Florida, ocean swells originating from this storm will continue to impact the Florida East Coast. These swells will combine with onshore winds to generate a high rip current risk from Nassau County through Martin County today. A moderate to high risk will likely persist along most of the Atlantic Coast through at least mid week.
- Although 93L is not expected to develop before it moves inland over Louisiana within the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible over much of Northwest Florida through Tuesday.
- Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Florida Panhandle today. These storms are expected to organize into strong to severe storms during the overnight hours and move eastward across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend on Tuesday.
- Damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats. While scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop today, the ingredients for severe weather should not be in place until after dark. The best chance for tornadoes will commence around 4am EDT and continue through much of the day on Tuesday.
- Additionally, heavy rainfall of up to 1 to 3 inches will be possible over the Florida Panhandle through Tuesday. Locally higher amounts may occur where storms repeatedly move over the same locations and this could result in localized flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas.
- Increasing onshore winds ahead of 93L and the approaching cold front will lead to a moderate to high risk of rip currents along much of the northern Gulf Coast today and tomorrow. Breaking waves may reach up to 4-7 feet along the Panhandle, Big Bend, and West Central Florida beaches.
More information on Tropical Storm Nadine, 92L, and 93L can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
More information on the severe weather threat can be found from the Storm Prediction Center at www.spc.noaa.gov, the Mobile National Weather Service at www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/, and the Tallahassee National Weather Service at www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Tuesday morning.
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