Tropics Update: Monday morning summary on 99L (90%) and 90L (50%)

Summary:

·         Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a tropical depression could be forming in the southwestern Caribbean Sea about 300 miles south of Jamaica, or approximately 809 miles south-southeast of Miami, Florida.

·         The National Hurricane Center is indicating a high (90%) chance that this system could develop within the next 48 hours.

·         This low pressure area has been designated as 99L and is expected to remain nearly stationary today and should begin to move northward toward Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Computer models suggest that 99L will then move through the Bahamas later this week.

·         Computer models also suggest that this system could reach tropical storm strength within the next two days and some models even show 99L becoming a hurricane within the next 3 to 4 days. If this system does receive a name, the next name on the list is Sandy.

·         An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.

·         Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized near a small area of low pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean, about 700 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

·         This system has been designated as 90L and only has a short time to develop in favorable conditions before wind shear increases tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is indicating a medium (50%) chance of development within the next 2 days as 90L moves northward at about 10 mph.

·         Computer models suggest that 90L will stay in the open Atlantic.

Florida outlook:

• At this time, the forecast track of 99L is uncertain, but South Florida and the rest of the Atlantic Coast could see some fringe or indirect impacts later this week.  Breezy winds of 10-20mph, waves as high as 10 feet at the coast and 20 feet offshore, beach erosion, and locally heavy rainfall are all a possibility.
• Regardless of the exact track of the system, the rip current risk will increase along the Atlantic Coast through the week. A high risk of rip currents will likely be in place from Nassau County through Miami-Dade County through the week, the upcoming weekend, and possibly into the middle of next week.

More information on 99L and 90L can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Tropics Update 10-22-12

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