Summary:
· As of 8am EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Sandy was located 325 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, or approximately 890 miles south of Miami, Florida.
· Sandy is currently moving toward the north-northeastward at 3 mph and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows this storm approaching Jamaica on Wednesday, eastern Cuba Wednesday night, and then passing through the Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.
· Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and strengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours. There is currently a 49% chance of Sandy reaching hurricane strength within the next 36 to 48 hours and the storm could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Jamaica.
· Elsewhere, as of 5am EDT, Tropical Depression #19 was located about 825 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands.
· Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph and some strengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours. TD 19 is expected to become Tropical Storm Tony today. By mid week, the storm will begin to move into an area of cooler waters and increasing wind shear and TD 19 will likely lose tropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday.
· The official forecast from National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Depression Nineteen staying well away from the United States and in the open Atlantic.
Florida outlook:
· At this time, the forecast track and distance Tropical Storm Sandy will stay from Florida is quite uncertain, but South Florida and the rest of the Atlantic Coast could see some fringe or indirect impacts later this week. Breezy winds of 25-35mph, waves as high as 11 feet at the coast and 20 feet offshore, beach erosion, and locally heavy rainfall are all a possibility. If the storm tracks closer to the Sunshine State, these effects could be greater.
· Along the Atlantic Coast of Florida, from Cocoa Beach through Miami, there is an 8% chance or less of receiving tropical storm force winds within the next five days. East Central Florida, from Daytona Beach to Orlando, the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida south of Fort Myers have less than a 5% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds.
· Regardless of the exact track of the system, the rip current risk will increase along the Atlantic Coast through the week. A high risk of rip currents will likely be in place from Nassau County through Miami-Dade County through the week, the upcoming weekend, and possibly into the middle of next week.
· Tropical Depression 19 is not expected to have direct impacts on the Sunshine State.
More information on Tropical Storm Sandy and Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Tuesday afternoon.
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