Notes on Invest 91L
• The system is currently moving north-northeast ever so slightly at 3mph. The winds at the low pressure center are at 28mph (25kt). The pressure is about 1008mb and is located around 24.1N and 88.8W
• The system still remains disorganized as thunderstorms remain far east of the center of circulation. The system is forecast to move into an area a little more favorable for development over the next 24 hours and slow strengthening will continue. How strong the system gets is still uncertain as model intensity values range from an unorganized tropical disturbance at 25-30mph to a tropical depression.
• Currently NHC has bumped the Invest to a 50% (medium) chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours.
• Impacts from this system are already being felt in South Florida by a feed of tropical moisture.
• Tropical rain will begin to effect Central Florida throughout the today and get progressively worse by Thursday. There is the potential for weak tornado development on Wednesday night because the right side of the system will be interacting with the Florida coast. This threat is expected to lift Thursday night.
• Predicted landfall is sometime on Thursday afternoon, most models are placing it to come onshore Thursdayafternoon somewhere near Dixie or Levy. However a few models are still indicating the possibility for a landfall farther west in Franklin or Bay counties. As of right now forecasts are continuing to indicate a more eastward landfall along the far eastern Forgotten coast.
• As of now the system is expected to move off the Northeast Florida coast near Jacksonville on Friday morning and continue moving Northeast as it is incorporated into a front. Behind the system rain and thunderstorms will occur throughout Friday, and lingering moisture will help develop active seabreeze days Friday through Sunday.
• The strength of the system at landfall is still VERY uncertain, as model intensity forecasts have been back and forth with how strong this system will become. The invest is moving into a region with less wind shear today and this could help it organize a little bit. The more reliable models are only indicating strengthening to about 33mph in the next 24 hours and then weakening as it comes onshore. Regardless of strength we do know that a lot of rain will fall over the entire state. This is one thing we can be sure of. The Tampa Weather Service office has already issued Flood watches through Thursday evening and other areas may be included in this across the state later today.
• Rainfall forecasts are about 6-7 inches in South Florida, 3-6 for Central, and 1-3 for Northwest Florida, whileNortheast Florida is around 3-6 inches. These values are over the next seven days and some isolated areas may receive up to 1-3 inches more from localized more intense storms.
IMPACTS
Rain:
The NWS offices in Tampa and Jacksonville are mentioning urban and small stream flooding possibilities from all this rainfall. However, currently the river forecast center does not show any flooding issues within the next 72 hours . All rivers in Florida are currently below flood stage. The precipitation associated with this system will be located more on the right-hand side of the system so major river flooding in the Northwest Florida is not likely at this time because most of the heavy rainfall will stay far to the South and more Northeastern part of the state. Jacksonville NWS office mentioned potential concerns for the Black Creek River basin. So this may be one area to watch as rain totals start to accumulate.
Surge:
The Tampa office recently mentioned a potential for slight storm surge of 1.5-2 feet along the west coast of Florida. This would occur roughly around high tide in the morning and afternoon on Thursday. Listed below are the times of high tide at various points along the western seaboard. The Tampa office mentions that this slight storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding (mainly around high tide times).
High tide forecast times:
Cedar key: 1:39am, 12:45pm
Clearwater: 10:25am
Naples: 2:19 am, 12:13pm
Severe Weather:
Currently there is the potential for severe weather mainly gusty winds from stronger thunderstorms and a very slight risk for weak tornado development throughout the day on Thursday in Central Florida. This threat will be mainly in Regions 4 and 6 tonight and transition to region 4 and 3 during the day on Thursday. This is because of the location of the system placing this region of Florida in that favored right hand quadrant for tornado development. At this point the Severe Weather Prediction Center has Florida under a marginally increased potential for severe weather on Thursday. This risk could be bumped up later in the day.
The NWS offices in Tampa and Jacksonville are mentioning urban and small stream flooding possibilities from all this rainfall. However, currently the river forecast center does not show any flooding issues within the next 72 hours . All rivers in Florida are currently below flood stage. The precipitation associated with this system will be located more on the right-hand side of the system so major river flooding in the Northwest Florida is not likely at this time because most of the heavy rainfall will stay far to the South and more Northeastern part of the state. Jacksonville NWS office mentioned potential concerns for the Black Creek River basin. So this may be one area to watch as rain totals start to accumulate.
Surge:
The Tampa office recently mentioned a potential for slight storm surge of 1.5-2 feet along the west coast of Florida. This would occur roughly around high tide in the morning and afternoon on Thursday. Listed below are the times of high tide at various points along the western seaboard. The Tampa office mentions that this slight storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding (mainly around high tide times).
High tide forecast times:
Cedar key: 1:39am, 12:45pm
Clearwater: 10:25am
Naples: 2:19 am, 12:13pm
Severe Weather:
Currently there is the potential for severe weather mainly gusty winds from stronger thunderstorms and a very slight risk for weak tornado development throughout the day on Thursday in Central Florida. This threat will be mainly in Regions 4 and 6 tonight and transition to region 4 and 3 during the day on Thursday. This is because of the location of the system placing this region of Florida in that favored right hand quadrant for tornado development. At this point the Severe Weather Prediction Center has Florida under a marginally increased potential for severe weather on Thursday. This risk could be bumped up later in the day.
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