Summary:
· At 8AM Wednesday, Tropical Storm Chantal was located 155 miles south-southwest of Santo Domingo,Dominican Republic, which is approximately 882 miles southeast of Miami, FL.
· Winds have decreased overnight, and are now estimated to be near 45 mph. Further weakening of Chantal is forecast to continue as it crosses over the Dominican Republic.
· Chantal is racing toward the west at 29 mph. This motion is expected to continue today before it turns toward the northwest tomorrow. However, if Chantal weakens into a tropical wave, it is forecast to only continue moving westward through the Caribbean Sea.
· Models are in general disagreement regarding the path of Tropical Storm Chantal, and there is high uncertainty within the models since Chantal may just be a tropical wave. Current solutions range from crossing Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico to paralleling the Florida Coast.
· The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center sends Chantal across the Dominican Republic andCuba where it weakens into a Tropical Depression before it parallels the Florida Coast starting on Friday night before making landfall near Savannah, Georgia, early Sunday morning.
· There is a 49% chance that Chantal could become a tropical depression over the next 24-48 hours.
· A hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to determine if Chantal is indeed a tropical storm.
Florida Outlook:
· The entire Florida Peninsula and portions of the Florida Big Bend are currently in the 5 day error cone and chances of seeing Tropical Storm force winds occurring over the state within the next 5 days remain about 5-20%.
· Regardless of how close Chantal gets to the Florida coast heavy rains and high rip current risks remain our main threat Saturday through Monday.
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