Summary:
· At 5AM, Tropical Storm Karen was located about 180 Miles south-southwest of the Mouth of Mississippi River which is approximately 339 miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
· Karen remains extremely disorganized with the last remaining bits of storms residing far to the east of the center. As a result, maximum sustained winds have weakened to about 40 mph.
· Because this system is considerably weak and disorganized, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast; and there are a few scenarios which could happen. A few models are predicting that Karen could have a small window to strengthen slightly. Other models suggest that Karen could lose its tropical characteristics and weaken into a remnant low.
· Either way, the track of this system will depend on the timing of a frontal boundary which is expected to descend into our area. Models remain uncertain, and solutions suggest a possible landfall anywhere between Gulf County in Florida and New Orleans, but the majority of solutions place a landfall near Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwest Florida.
· The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that this system will continue to drift north-northwestward before it makes a hard northeast turn once it gets picked up by a frontal boundary. Once it gets picked up by the frontal boundary, it is expected to make a second landfall near Pensacola, Florida on Sunday evening before leaving the Florida Panhandle early Monday morning.
· A hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance flight is currently investigating this system and another flight is scheduled fortomorrow.
Florida Outlook:
· The timing of this system is highly uncertain but impacts could be felt as early Sunday afternoon.
· A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida through the Mouth of the Pearl River in Louisiana. This includes the counties of: Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, Bay, and Gulf.
· This means that gusty winds of up to 60 mph could begin to impact portions of Northwest Florida. There is currently a 20% chance for tropical storm force winds reaching the Panhandle.
· Widespread heavy rainfall of between 1 and 3 inches is possible across the Panhandle with locally heavier amounts of up to 6 inches.
· As a result, river, flash, and coastal flooding will still be a concern, but these risks are starting to go down. Rivers to watch include the Shoal, Choctawhatchee, Black Water, and the Yellow Rivers.
· Preliminary storm surge estimates will be between 2 and 4 feet with the highest amounts occurring near Cedar Key. These estimates may be a little high.
· The risk for tornadoes will begin to increase on Sunday in conjunction of the northeast side of the storm hitting the Panhandle and Big Bend. These tornadoes will generally be isolated and confined to rain bands passing over an area.
· It is important to remember that there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and that the impacts remain extremely uncertain at this time.
· A high risk of rip currents will be possible across the Panhandle and Gulf Coasts lingering through Monday.
Briefing slides are attached. Another packet will be sent out this afternoon. For more information, please visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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