Tropics Update: SW Gulf (50%) Wednesday Morning Summary

Summary:

·         Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche has become much better organized this morning.

·         As a result, the National Hurricane Center is now indicating a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

·         While atmospheric conditions are favorable for development, the system is very close to land and will have limited time to organize.

·         Steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean will steer the system west-northwest and computer models are forecasting that the low will move inland over eastern Mexico later today.

·         Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov

Briefing slides are attached. This will be the last update unless the system is named.

Tropics Update 7-13-11(1)


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