This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office or visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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92L:
- A non-tropical low pressure system, designated as invest 92L, in the far eastern Atlantic is producing strong winds of 50 mph.
- This system is now tracking over warmer waters and could gain tropical characteristics over the next few days as the system moves slowly westward.
- •The NHC has placed this systems development chances at 30% in the next five days.
93L:
- An area of low pressure in the far southwestern Bay of Campeche continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and storms.
- This system is forecast to remain over warm waters and in an area of lower wind shear over the next couple of days and this could allow for some gradual development before wind shear increases out ahead of a front late this week.
- 93L is forecast to slowly move east over the next 48 hours, reaching the Yucatan Peninsula by mid-week and near the Yucatan Channel lateThursday and Friday as the system merges with a frontal boundary and pushes through the Florida Straits over the weekend.
- The NHC has placed this systems development chances at 40% over the next 5 days.
- Intensity models remain in disagreement, which is common when forecasting weak systems, and the more reliable models are keeping the system below tropical storm strength due to increasing wind shear and possible land interaction with Mexico.
- A Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft may investigate 93L tomorrow afternoon if conditions warrant.
Florida Outlook:
- 92L is not forecast to impact Florida and will likely remain far out at sea.
- Regardless of the development or track of 93L, increased rainfall is forecast to fall across South Florida late this week as 93L will send tropical moisture northward into the southern Florida peninsula increasing rain chances (and the potential for isolated strong storms) late Tuesday through the weekend.
- Rainfall forecasts are currently placing up to 5 inches of rain across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and up to 9 inches over the Florida Keys. This could create flooding issues and flash flooding in urban areas may result late this week.
*Another briefing packet will be sent tomorrow morning unless development chances increase. For more information please visit the National Hurricane Center Webpage at www. nhc.noaa.gov |
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