· At 8am Monday, Tropical Storm Gert was located about 100 miles southeast of Bermuda, which is also about 1,091 miles east-northeast of Jacksonville, Florida.
· Gert is now moving toward the north at 14 mph and should pass just east of Bermuda today. A turn toward the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is expected to occur tonight or Tuesday as it is steered away from the U.S. east coast by an approaching frontal system.
· Maximum sustained winds have increased overnight to around 60 mph and some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so. After that time, Gert is expected to move over cooler waters and begin to weaken and get absorbed by a front by Thursday.
· Elsewhere, an area of low pressure, designated as 92L, is located just to the southeast of Tropical Storm Gert, about 550 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, which is also around 1,300 miles east of Melbourne, Florida.
· Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with 92L is weakening and environmental conditions are only expected to stay marginally favorable for development due to its proximity to Tropical Storm Gert.
· As a result, The National Hurricane Center is now indicating a 0% chance of 92L developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
· This system is currently moving toward the north-northwest around 15-20 mph.
· Computer models are no longer being run on the system, but a northward movement should continue over the next couple of days before the storm gets steered north and northeast into the open Atlantic by the same frontal system that is steering Gert.
· A new tropical wave has developed about 325 miles east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, which is also about 1,900 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
· The tropical wave is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, but development should be slow to occur since the wave will be moving into a large area of dry air for the next few days.
· Though environmental conditions may become more favorable later this week, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 10% chance that this wave will develop within the next 2 days due to the dry air.
· The wave is currently moving west at 15-20 mph. Computer models are not yet being run on the system, but a westward movement should continue for the next few days.AM Tropics Update 8-15-11
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