Tropics Update: Hurricane Katia and eastern Atlantic (70%) summary

Summary:

·         Though Tropical Storm Lee has dissipated, a frontal system that absorbed Lee will continue to impact the Florida Peninsula today.

·         Heavy rainfall along with the threat for severe weather will continue to be a concern today.

·         In addition, a prolonged period of onshore winds and ocean swells will elevate the threat for high waves, high tides and rip currents along the West Central Florida coast. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from Levy County to Lee County where surf heights along the coast will be between 3-5 feet today (with occasional higher sets possible), tides of 1-2 foot above normal tide levels are expected and minor coastal flooding may occur.

·         At 5am Tuesday, Major Hurricane Katia was located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean about 400 miles south of Bermuda, which is also around 925 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida.

·         Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125mph, making Katia a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

·         Though some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, a slow weakening trend is expected through the remainder of the week as Katia encounters increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

·         Hurricane Katia is moving northwest at 10 mph, and this general motion is expected through Wednesday as it is steered around high pressure in the central Atlantic before curving toward the north and northeast later this week as it gets picked up by a frontal boundary currently along the U.S. East Coast.

·         All computer models and the official 5 day forecast track from the National Hurricane Center keeps the system over the open central and western Atlantic Ocean away from any land masses through the next 5 days.

·         Even through the storm is expected to stay away from Florida and the U.S., ocean swells and very dangerous rip currents from the storm will affect the Florida East Coast this week. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is already posted for the entire Florida Atlantic Coast. Several rescues were reported on Monday.

·         Further east, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and low pressure area in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is becoming better organized.

·         Environmental conditions are favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is indicating a 70% chance that this system, labeled as invest area 95L, could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours as it moves west to west-northwest around 15 mph.

·         If this system receives a name, the next name on the list is Maria.

·         Computer models are in decent agreement, and most show this system moving in a general west to west-northwest direction and approaching the northern Leeward Islands in about next five days.

·         Elsewhere, a nearly stationary area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

·         Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development and the National Hurricane Center is only indicating a 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours.

More information on Hurricane Katia and 95L can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov. 

Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Tuesday evening. 

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