Summary
As of 8 AM EDT Friday, the low pressure system designated as 90L remains nearly stationary and is located about 80 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized and are still displaced to the southwest of the center of the low pressure system. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development as it drifts toward the east ahead of an approaching cold front this weekend.
· Most computer models show 90L reaching weak tropical storm strength in 60-72 hours, but models can be very unreliable with poorly organized systems. If this system does develop into a named storm, it will be named Nadine.
· The National Hurricane Center has decreased the chance for development from yesterday and is now indicating a low (20%) chance that this system could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next two days as it drifts southward.
· Computer models suggest that 90L will drift south or southwestward through the next day or so as a cold front picks it up and shifts it toward the northeast or east this weekend. The most recent run of computer models suggest that 90L will move onshore somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Sarasota in the next to 2 to 3 days.
· An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this afternoon but will likely be cancelled if the system does not begin to show signs of organization.
· As of 8 AM EDT, Hurricane Leslie was located about 415 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, which is also approximately 1,144 miles east of Miami, Florida.
· Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph and little change in strength is forecast for the next few days.
· Leslie is currently stationary but the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a very slow north or northeastward movement today with a slightly faster motion toward the north tomorrow.
· Further east, as of 5 AM EDT, Hurricane Michael was located 920 miles west-southwest of the Azores Islands.
· Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 105 mph making Michael a category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Michael is forecast to gradually weaken over the next couple of days.
· Michael is moving toward the north at 3 mph and a turn toward the northwest is expected to occur through tomorrow before it turns back toward the northwest tonight. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Hurricane Michael in the open Atlantic Ocean and far away from all land areas.
Florida outlook:
· No part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone of Hurricane Leslie or Hurricane Michael and neither storm is expected to have direct impacts on the Sunshine State.
· Although no direct impacts from Leslie or Michael are expected in Florida, large waves and ocean swells from Hurricane Leslie are impacting the Florida East Coast. A high rip current risk is in place from Nassau County through Martin County today and a moderate to high risk will likely persist through the weekend.
· 90L has the potential to bring more direct impacts to Florida through the weekend and regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be likely over much of the state this weekend as a cold front passes through North and Central Florida this weekend. An additional 1-2 inches of rain may fall over the entire state with locally higher amounts possible near the area of low pressure.
· Additionally, 90L has generated a moderate rip current risk from Escambia County through Gulf County and these conditions will likely persist through the next couple of days. An increase in wave heights and rip currents will likely occur along all Gulf Coast beaches through the weekend.
More information on Tropical Storm Kirk and Leslie can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Friday Evening.
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