Sunday, October 14, 2012

FYI-Tropics Update: Friday Morning Summary on Tropical Storm Patty and 98L

·         As of 5am EDT, Tropical Storm Patty was located about 230 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas, which is approximately 484 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida.
·         Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph. Patty currently is located over an area of strong wind shear and dry air which will likely continue to weaken Patty. At this rate, Patty could become a tropical depression today and a remnant low by Saturday.
·         Patty is moving toward the south-southwest at 3 mph, and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows this motion continuing as it is steered around high pressure building along the U.S. East Coast.
·         Most computer models are in good agreement, showing a weakening/dissipating Patty southwest across the Bahamas towards Cuba, while a few others send it northeast into the open Atlantic Ocean.

·         Elsewhere, the low pressure system designated as 98L was located about 60 miles northwest of Saint Lucia.
·         Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next couple of days and the National Hurricane Center gives this system a high (80%) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours. The next name on the 2012 Atlantic hurricane list is Rafael.
·         Computer models are in good agreement and send 98L northwestward before it turns toward the northeast as it gets absorbed by a cold front while staying away from Florida.

Florida Outlook:
·         No part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone, and Patty is not expected to bring any direct impacts at this time.
·         Breezy winds will be possible this weekend as a result of the location of Patty. These breezy onshore winds will create a high risk of rip currents across Southeast Florida Beaches today, and the elevated risk is expected to persist this weekend.

·         Computer models do not suggest that 98L will bring any direct impacts to Florida.

More information on Tropical Storm Patty and 98L can be found at e-mail with comments