Monday, June 6, 2016

TS Colin 6:00 pm update

At 5pm EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Colin was located in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 70 miles southwest of Apalachicola, or about 190 miles west-northwest of Tampa.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts, and additional strengthening is unlikely before moving inland. Colin is expected to become post-tropical tomorrow.
Colin is moving quickly north-northeast at 23 mph, but a turn to the northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday.
Colin is expected to make landfall within the next few hours along the Big Bend Coast and move into southeastern Georgia around midnight, exiting into the Atlantic near Savannah, Georgia, early Tuesday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles, mainly to the east of the center.
Florida Outlook:
The strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center. Thus, impacts from this system are expected to affect a majority of the state, especially near and east of where the center of the storm travels.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for 34 Florida counties: Franklin, Wakulla, Jefferson, Taylor, Dixie, Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Flagler, St. Johns, Duval, Nassau, Volusia, Brevard, Orange, Seminole, Lake, Sumter, Marion, Alachua, Clay, Putnam, Bradford, Union, Baker, Columbia, Gilchrist, Suwannee and Lafayette. Wind gusts to 50 or 60 mph are possible in these areas. Gusts to 50mph have already been reported along the Gulf Coast.
Rainfall and flooding remain the largest threat. Rainfall amounts of 1-3” have fallen across West Central Florida, Southwest Florida and the Florida Big Bend and eastern Panhandle, with higher amounts to 6-8” already reported in portions of Bay, Wakulla, Leon and Jefferson Counties.
An additional 3-5” of rain is possible over the next 24 hours andFlood Watches remain in effect for 59 Counties.
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain possible across the Florida  Big Bend and entire Florida Peninsula tonight.  The risk for severe weather will continue for the Peninsula on Tuesday.
Increased wave heights will lead to a high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding and erosion as storm surge heights reach up to 4 feet (above normal tide) with breaking waves of up to 10 feet along much of the Gulf Coast, with the highest levels predicted in Apalachee Bay and along the Nature Coast. Increased waves are also expected along the Atlantic Coast on Tuesday with rip currents expected.